Signify Research Digital Health 2023 Predictions Scorecard

Published: December 11, 2023

11th December 2023 – Cranfield, UK

Our team of top analysts have reviewed their beginning-of-year predictions for 2023 and provided a summary of how close our predictions were to manifesting in reality. 

Despite a tumultuous year of changing economic, political, and regulatory macro-influences, big technology lay-offs and the rapid emergence of potentially disruptive technology such as generative AI, most of our predictions held up, with only a few expectations missing the mark, or the timing of actual realisation being slightly off (see our 2024 predictions for more on this). 

To view the Medical Imaging Top 10 Predicitions, please click here.

To view the Clinical Care Top 5 Predictions, please click here.

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Below is our summary analysis on the 20 predictions we made across the Healthcare Technology industry, broken into 3 of our main research areas; Medical Imaging, Digital Health and Clinical care. As ever, our expert team are on hand for support on interpretating market trends and supporting clients navigate the ever-changing healthcare technology landscape.

Digital Health

Prediction 1: Big Tech to Become Mainstream.

Vlad Kozynchenko, Senior Market Analyst – “Amazon (AWS), Google and Microsoft are now established healthcare IT and service vendors. AWS is in a particularly strong position, having secured dominant market share in the general cloud infrastructure market within US health systems. Its data aggregation solution HealthLake, and its acquisition of One Medical, have also enabled AWS to leverage US value-based care (VBC) opportunities.”

“With generative AI (gen AI) entering the digital health lexicon, particularly in relation to EHR, clinical documentation, clinical decision support, and care management, Big Tech’s play for share is gaining ground.”

“We’re also seeing increasingly tight relationships between Big Tech and EHR vendors. These include Google Cloud plays with Epic and MEDITECH, and Microsoft with Epic. This positions them well in terms of scaling their healthcare-focused gen AI business.”

Prediction 2: Reboot of US Value-Based Care Set to Accelerate.

Arun Gill, Senior Market Analyst – “Accountable Care and Managed Services Organisations, as well as EHR and population health management vendors are increasingly positioned as ‘enablers’ to help smaller primary care practices access VBC.”  

“This is taking place in parallel with changing reimbursement rules in the US. One is the Making Care Primary (MCP) scheme, unveiled in mid-2023, which is designed to provide a route for small practices in eight US states to participate in VBC. MCP will offer a different approach to previous schemes such as the Comprehensive Primary Care (CPC), CPC+ and Primary Care First programmes.”  

“Arguably the biggest support that the CMS will offer with MCP is the fact that reimbursement contracts will be upside risk-only. This is a departure from typical VBC contracts where providers are forced into two-sided risk arrangements quickly.”

Prediction 3: Size is Everything: Consolidation Around Big EHR Vendors to Pick Up Pace in Europe/US.

Arun Gill, Senior Market Analyst – “We’re seeing Tier-1 EHR vendors increasingly being selected for large hospital IT contracts in the US (e.g. Epic) and Europe (e.g. Dedalus). Multi-billion-dollar state healthcare IT investment programmes in Germany (the Hospital Futures Act, KHZG), Italy (Fascicolo Sanitario Elettronico) and France (Mon Espace Santé) are accelerating this trend, while larger vendors are also exerting their gravitational pull among UK Integrated Care Systems.”  

“This trend is to the detriment of smaller EHR vendors, who lack the scale and resources to offer the range and sophistication of solutions of their larger rivals.” 

Prediction 4: Retail, Big Tech To Become Synonymous with Primary Care.

Alex Green, Managing Director – “After promising much at the back end of 2022, retail players still have to seriously make their mark in US primary care markets. Signs that enthusiasm may be wavering came last month when Walgreens announced it was shutting almost 10% of the roughly 680 VillageMD health clinics it operates in the US.”  

“It is part of a goal by the company to slash operating costs, and reflects the fact that physical footprint in primary care is still not a strategic priority in a challenging environment.” 

“We think this is a short- to medium-term decision while the company identifies new revenue streams and opportunities in digitally-driven VBC and virtual care, and that physical expansions in primary care delivery will be revisited down the line.” 

Prediction 5: Telehealth and RPM to Switch Tactics. 

Hamir Harbham, Market Analyst – “The high-acuity telehealth market has transitioned towards an enterprise telehealth ecosystem, as health systems and telehealth vendors have increasingly deployed continuous monitoring solutions for virtual-nursing and virtual-sitting.”

“Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM) vendors have experienced uncertainty and frustration surrounding CPT code reimbursement. However, long-term clarity, regarding both traditional RPM and hospital-at-home, will support future developments within the market.”

“For both telehealth and RPM, partnerships and acquisitions remain prominent following continued post-Covid consolidation.”