Simon Harris

Ultrasound is generally perceived as an essential diagnostic tool, and it is widely used in many clinical applications. With the use of ultrasound spreading quickly to point-of-care applications, such as emergency medicine, intensive care, anaesthesia, and more, it is becoming ubiquitous throughout healthcare systems.

After a record year in 2018, the current world trade slowdown is taking its toll on the ultrasound market and the outlook for 2019 is for slower growth.

2018 was a record year for the world ultrasound equipment market, with revenues increasing by 6.8%, tipping the market over the $7 billion mark for the first time. Despite the backdrop of global economic uncertainty, the ultrasound market is forecast to continue to grow relatively strongly in the coming years, with the following trends driving growth.

The last two-to-three years has seen Philips complete its transformation into a pureplay healthcare technology vendor.

AI was once again the hot topic at this year’s RSNA. With close to 60 AI start-ups in the Machine Learning Showcase and most of the incumbent modality and imaging IT vendors marketing AI to varying degrees, the technology was hard to ignore at this year’s meeting.

The global ultrasound market is on track for a strong year, with the annual revenue growth rate forecast to reach 6.6%, notably higher than the 5.1% growth we predicted at the start of the year (2018 Set to be a Strong Year for Global Ultrasound Market, January 2018). The EMEA and Americas markets are forecast to grow at mid-single-digit rates, slightly faster than our January forecast, with Asia remaining the fastest growing market, largely driven by China.

Until fairly recently, most medical image analysis software was workstation-based and sold with a perpetual (one-time) software licence. However, with the introduction of cloud-based AI solutions, subscription and fee-per-study models are becoming more prevalent and are forecast to account for an increasing share of the market in the coming years - see chart below. Subscription models are typically preferred by vendors as they create sustainable, recurring revenue streams.

The world market for machine learning in medical imaging, comprising software for automated detection, quantification, decision support and diagnosis, is set for a period of robust growth and is forecast to top $2 billion by 2023, according to a new report from Signify Research, an independent supplier of market intelligence and consultancy to the global healthcare technology industry.

In recent years the annual growth rate of the European general radiography market has stalled to a near standstill. 2018 is expected to see a continuation of the trend, with market revenues forecast to increase by a mere 1%. The market has been buoyed in recent years by the transition from analogue and computed radiography (CR) to fully digital systems, but in Western Europe this trend has largely run its course. However, there are still opportunities for growth, both at a product and country level.

Capital investment in companies who are developing machine learning solutions for medical image analysis reached $522 million by the end of the first half of 2018. There was a surge of investment towards the end of 2017, with nine deals completed in Q4 2017 worth a combined $141 million. This has continued into 2018, with deal value reaching $143 million across nine deals in the year-to-date.

As AI gains traction in the medical imaging market, and its benefits for clinical diagnosis and more accurate early disease detection are being better understood by healthcare stakeholders, it is no longer a question of will AI be used, but rather how will it be deployed.

As well as attending the ECR show in Vienna, Signify Research analysts also provided a daily column for the Congress Newspaper - ECR Today.